# What does the NOAA winter outlook say?

*NOAA released the outlook on October 15, 2026, said El Nino will likely influence the winter months, and said the next update comes on November 19.*

- Type: Explainer
- Section: Science
- By: Science Desk
- Published: 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00
- Updated: 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00
- URL: https://factsdesk.com/science/what-does-the-noaa-winter-outlook-say/

## Key facts

- NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 favors a warmer-than-average North and a wetter-than-average South and East. Source: [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/what-does-the-noaa-winter-outlook-say/#noaa-s-u-s-winter-outlook-for-december-2026-through-february
- NOAA said warmer-than-average temperatures are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. Source: [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/what-does-the-noaa-winter-outlook-say/#noaa-said-warmer-than-average-temperatures-are-favored-for
- NOAA said wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast. Source: [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/what-does-the-noaa-winter-outlook-say/#noaa-said-wetter-than-average-conditions-are-most-likely
- The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO outlook gives an 80 percent probability that at least a strong El Nino continues through the January to March 2027 season. Source: [NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/what-does-the-noaa-winter-outlook-say/#the-climate-prediction-center-s-enso-outlook-gives-an-80
- The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall, and NOAA said the next update will be available on November 19, 2026. Source: [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:53-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/what-does-the-noaa-winter-outlook-say/#the-outlook-does-not-project-seasonal-snowfall-and-noaa-said

NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 favors a warmer-than-average North and a wetter-than-average South and East, according to the [release](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) the agency published on October 15, 2026. NOAA said in the same release that El Nino will likely influence the winter months.

The outlook gives the likelihood that temperature and precipitation over the whole season will be above, near or below average.

## Temperature

NOAA's [release](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) lists three temperature findings for December through February.

| Outlook | Where |
| --- | --- |
| Warmer than average favored | Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska, and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands |
| Near normal most likely | Parts of the Southeast, including Florida |
| Equal chances | Hawaii and much of the Southwest |

"Equal chances" means the odds of below-average, near-average and above-average conditions are similar to climatological probabilities, according to the Climate Prediction Center's [seasonal discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html).

## Precipitation

The [release](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) lists three precipitation findings for the same months.

| Outlook | Where |
| --- | --- |
| Wetter than average most likely | The southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast |
| Drier than average, elevated odds | Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, some areas in the Great Lakes, and the western Pacific Islands |
| Equal chances | Areas in the Intermountain West, the northern Plains, the Ohio Valley, and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands |

## Drought

NOAA said in the [release](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) that drought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, the Southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Drought is favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.

## The role of El Nino

The Climate Prediction Center, the NOAA office that issues the seasonal outlooks, said in its [discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html) dated October 15, 2026, that an El Nino advisory remains in effect, that the event continues to strengthen and that the outlooks for the winter and spring are heavily influenced by it.

- The center's ENSO outlook gives an 80 percent probability that at least a strong El Nino continues through the January to March 2027 season, and it favors an El Nino of any strength continuing through the March to May 2027 season.
- The latest weekly value of the Nino3.4 sea surface temperature index was +2.4 degrees Celsius.
- The center said the Pacific jet stream shifts southward and eastward during El Nino events, which is the reason it gives for favoring above-normal precipitation along much of the West Coast and below-normal precipitation for much of mainland Alaska.
- The center said above-normal precipitation in the Southeast is one of the most reliable signals from El Nino events. Its odds for above-normal precipitation exceed 70 percent for some areas in the extreme Southeast and northern Florida through the January to March 2027 season.

## What the outlook does not cover

The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall. NOAA said in the [release](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) that snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

The Climate Prediction Center said in its [discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html) that the outlooks are meant to be used before the start of the period they cover, and that observations and short-range and medium-range forecasts should be consulted once that period is under way.

## When the outlook is updated

The three-month outlook is updated monthly, and NOAA said in the [release](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) that the next update will be available on November 19. The Climate Prediction Center's [discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html) gives the same date, November 19, 2026, for the set of outlooks that will supersede the current one.

This page will be updated at this address when that update is published.

## Sources

1. [El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2026-10-15 (primary source)
2. [Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html), NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 2026-10-15 (primary source)