# Is it a La Nina winter?

*The Climate Prediction Center's October 8, 2026 discussion said El Niño was strengthening, and its next monthly discussion is scheduled for November 12, 2026.*

- Type: Explainer
- Section: Science
- By: Science Desk
- Published: 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00
- Updated: 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00
- URL: https://factsdesk.com/science/is-it-a-la-nina-winter/

## Key facts

- No. The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO alert status is El Niño Advisory, not La Niña, in its latest diagnostic discussion, issued October 8, 2026. Source: [NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/is-it-a-la-nina-winter/#no-the-climate-prediction-center-s-enso-alert-status-is-el
- The discussion said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with the chance remaining greater than 83 percent. Source: [NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/is-it-a-la-nina-winter/#the-discussion-said-a-strong-to-very-strong-el-nino-is
- The center put the chance of a historic El Niño, stronger than any since 1950, at 54 percent for September to November, 83 percent for October to December and 70 percent for November to January. Source: [NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/is-it-a-la-nina-winter/#the-center-put-the-chance-of-a-historic-el-nino-stronger
- The next ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Source: [NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/is-it-a-la-nina-winter/#the-next-enso-diagnostic-discussion-is-scheduled-for
- An El Niño or La Niña Advisory is issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Source: [NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso-alert-readme.shtml). Confirmed 2026-11-12T01:53:20-05:00. Cite: https://factsdesk.com/science/is-it-a-la-nina-winter/#an-el-nino-or-la-nina-advisory-is-issued-when-el-nino-or-la

No. The Climate Prediction Center's [latest ENSO diagnostic discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml), issued on October 8, 2026, lists the ENSO alert status as El Niño Advisory, not La Niña, and said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027. ENSO stands for El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the center publishes its diagnostic discussion monthly.

## What the latest discussion says

| Item | What the center states |
| --- | --- |
| Alert status | El Niño Advisory |
| Issued | October 8, 2026 |
| Next discussion | November 12, 2026 |

The [discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) said El Niño strengthened further in the month before it was issued and that the center's official outlook indicates it will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. It gave these details:

- A strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with the chance remaining greater than 83 percent.
- Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
- The Niño indices reached +2.1°C in the Niño-3.4 region, +3.0°C in Niño-3 and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2.

## The stated chance of a historic El Niño

The [discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) said chances remain high for a historic event, one that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. It defined that as a 3-month value of +2.5°C or more on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index and gave the chance for three overlapping periods.

| 3-month period | Chance of a historic event |
| --- | --- |
| September to November | 54 percent |
| October to December | 83 percent |
| November to January | 70 percent |

The center added that with an event of this size the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed.

## What an advisory means

An El Niño or La Niña Advisory is issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue, according to the center's [description of its alert system](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso-alert-readme.shtml). A Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for El Niño or La Niña to develop within the next six months, and a Final Advisory is issued after the conditions have ended.

The same page says La Niña conditions exist when a one-month negative relative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5°C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the 3-month index threshold is expected to be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific. El Niño conditions use the mirror image of that test, with a positive anomaly of 0.5°C or greater.

## When the next update is due

The [October discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) said the next one is scheduled for November 12, 2026. When this page was last checked, early on November 12, the center's page still showed the October 8 discussion. This page will be updated at this address when the new discussion is published.

## Sources

1. [El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml), NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 2026-10-08 (primary source)
2. [ENSO Alert System Status](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso-alert-readme.shtml), NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 2018-06-13 (primary source)